On April 13, 2029, yes, Friday the 13th, a massive asteroid will skim past Earth at just 19,600 miles, closer than the satellites beaming your GPS signal right now.
Over 2 billion people across Europe, Africa, and Western Asia will watch this 1,100-foot space rock streak across the night sky without needing a telescope.
It’s the first time in recorded history that humans will see a potentially hazardous asteroid this large with the naked eye.
The “God of Chaos” Gets Uncomfortably Close
When astronomers Roy Tucker, David Tholen, and Fabrizio Bernardi discovered asteroid 99942 Apophis at Kitt Peak National Observatory on June 19, 2004, their calculations sparked immediate concern.
Initial models showed a 2.7% chance of impact in 2029.
That probability earned Apophis a Level 4 rating on the Torino Scale, the highest threat level ever assigned to any near-Earth object. Scientists named it after the Egyptian god of chaos and destruction.
“We spent years tracking this asteroid,” Richard Binzel, a professor of planetary sciences at MIT, said Monday (Sept. 8) during a keynote address at the Europlanet Science Congress in Helsinki, Finland.
“The three most important things about Apophis are: Apophis will safely pass the Earth; Apophis will safely pass the Earth; Apophis will safely pass the Earth.”
Closer Than You Think
The closest known approach of Apophis will occur on April 13, 2029, at 21:46 UT, when Apophis will pass Earth at a distance of about 31,600 kilometres (19,600 mi) above the surface.
That’s ten times closer than the Moon.
It’s five times Earth’s radius.
And it’s inside the orbit of our geostationary satellites, which hover at 22,236 miles.
During the 2029 approach, Apophis’s brightness will peak at magnitude 3.1, easily visible to the naked eye, with a maximum angular speed of 42° per hour. It will appear as bright as the stars in the Big Dipper, racing across the sky as a fast-moving point of light.
Who Gets Front Row Seats?
The cosmic show favors viewers in the Eastern Hemisphere.
Europe will have prime viewing, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, and the UK can all witness the flyby.
Africa gets excellent seats too, particularly Morocco, Algeria, and Egypt.
Western Asia, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, will see Apophis streak overhead.
For several minutes, it will appear as a bright, fast-moving point of light as it races across the sky. The asteroid will traverse an arc of 205 degrees, moving northwest from Centaurus to Perseus and then southwest to Pisces.
Americans will miss the main event, though some might catch a glimpse on the horizon.
A Natural Experiment 7,500 Years in the Making
Astronomers estimate that a close approach by an asteroid this large, 1,100 feet (340 meters) across, or roughly the height of the Eiffel Tower, occurs only once every 7,500 years.
“This is a once-in-a-millennium natural experiment,” planetary scientists are calling it.
Earth’s gravity won’t just give us a show, it will fundamentally alter Apophis itself.
The asteroid will pass at an altitude of just 18,600 miles (30,000 kilometers), lower than many of our geostationary satellites, giving researchers an unprecedented chance to witness how Earth’s gravitational pull distorts a celestial body in real time.
The tidal forces could trigger avalanches and “asteroid quakes” on Apophis.
Its rotation might shift into a tumbling motion.
The path of Apophis after 2029 will depend on how Earth’s gravity changes the asteroid’s orbit, said Davide Farnocchia, an astrophysicist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) who is studying the asteroid’s trajectory.
Space Agencies Are Already Preparing
NASA isn’t waiting until 2029 to start studying Apophis.
Its OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, fresh from its successful sample-return mission from the asteroid Bennu, has been reassigned to rendezvous with Apophis. Now renamed OSIRIS-APEX, the probe is expected to reach the asteroid ahead of the flyby and will map its surface, rotation, and structural changes.
Europe is launching its own mission.
European Space Agency is developing its own complementary mission, RAMSES (Rapid Apophis Mission for Space Safety). If funding is approved at the ESA’s Ministerial Council in November, the spacecraft could launch in spring 2028 and arrive at Apophis by February 2029.
RAMSES will hover just 3 miles from Apophis during the flyby, searching for dust clouds and potentially deploying a small cubesat to land on the surface.
From Doomsday Fears to Scientific Opportunity
When Apophis topped NASA’s risk lists in 2004, media dubbed it the “Doomsday Asteroid.”
Those fears persisted for years.
When Apophis made a distant flyby of Earth around March 5, astronomers took the opportunity to use powerful radar observations to refine the estimate of its orbit around the Sun with extreme precision, enabling them to confidently rule out any impact risk in 2068 and long after.
By March 2021, Apophis was officially removed from all impact risk lists.
“A 2068 impact is not in the realm of possibility anymore, and our calculations don’t show any impact risk for at least the next 100 years,” said Davide Farnocchia of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS).
What Scientists Will Learn?
For planetary defense experts, Apophis represents a critical test case.
“In 60 years of planetary science, we’ve only measured seismicity for two objects: the moon and Mars,” he said. “This would be the opportunity for another leap forward in seismic measurements and interpretation of interior properties.”
The flyby will reveal:
- How tidal forces reshape asteroids
- Internal structure through seismic activity
- Surface composition changes from Earth’s gravity
- Rotation dynamics of near-Earth objects
- Critical data for future asteroid deflection strategies
Mark Your Calendar
According to JPL Horizons, the next close approach of Apophis to Earth occurs on 2029-Apr-13 21:45 UTC, with a distance to the centre of the Earth of ~38,000 km.
Set your reminders now.
Clear your schedule.
Find friends in Europe, Africa, or Asia to visit.
Because the next time an asteroid this large passes this close to Earth, it will be the year 9529.
And humanity might not be around to watch.
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